Inside Football Betting Models: How Data and Probability Shape the Odds 

Football is constantly evolving, whether it’s how the players train, the monitoring of player wellbeing, or even how fans engage and spectate the sport. It’s a sport that is often very unpredictable, with a reputation that anything can happen on a football pitch. From underdog stories to unbelievable records, the odds in football can never guarantee what may come; however, they are always statistically accurate. A lot of time, evidence and analysis go into setting odds, so today, BoyleSports, the home of UK live casino games, will be taking a look at how data and probability shape them.

The Numbers Behind Each Kick 

Football betting has evolved over the years to a point where almost every element of the game can be predicted and bet on, even things such as corner kicks, expected goals and earliest throw-in. The industry is massive, not just as an off the pitch pre-game activity, but also within the game, sponsoring clubs and providing teams with money in return for advertisement and promotion. Odds are created by the bookies, or can even be customised by the user, meaning each bet can be different. The odds are created through historical factors and data, rather than bias and expectations, which is what we will be looking at in this piece.

The Science Behind The Odds 

Odds are not just plucked out of the air, but are rather the result of detailed research and data analysis that determines the probability of certain outcomes. Oddsmaking is the process by which odds are created, considering 3 different factors:  data analysis, risk management, and market psychology. A team of professionals, known as oddsmakers, will determine and set the initial bet lines and potential returns for various events or outcomes during the game. Key people, such as statisticians, are vital in this stage, providing up-to-date and accurate statistics that can be taken into consideration when setting the odds. The data used may come from team statistics, such as goals conceded, goals scored, possession, or expected goals, whereas it could also be broader data, including injuries, home/away factors, weather, and even look at referee performances. Algorithms are able to process this data, which will then convert it into rough probabilities and then into betting odds.

The Mathematics of Probability 

Mathematics plays a huge part in understanding the odds, even more so than the science that goes on behind it. Converting the odds into implied probabilities is one way that the odds can be further understood, potentially showing the data as a percentage to display the likelihood of the corresponding event occurring. The total of the implied probability will never be over 100% as a result of no model being able to predict an outcome of a game or result, rather just showing the likelihood of that return.

Data Sources 

The data used to create the odds must be 100% accurate, so it is important that the data used to generate them comes from a reliable, trusted source. The majority of data sources that are used when it comes to creating odds are via a primary source or statistician specifically given the role to collect data over the course of the season, or it can be taken from official league data. A wide variety of tools can be used to ensure that data is accurate, including spreadsheets, regression models, machine learning and even AI simulations. Multiple tools are used to collect data, ensuring that it is accurate and does not show any inconsistencies.

Changing Odds 

Odds can be changed over time; this can be the result of numerous factors influencing an alteration to the probabilities. This can occur due to team news prior to a game, injuries, betting value, or even external information. Market efficiency is also key as to why odds may change, meeting the general consensus as a result of all the information available.

The Human Elements 

Despite all of the research, analysis and mathematics that go into creating odds, they cannot account for random human decisions or errors. The unpredictability of football means odds are never guaranteed, as a result of not taking into consideration factors such as red cards, refereeing controversies, or mid-game injuries. 

The Rise of Predictive Analysis 

Data and analytics have become more advanced, no longer just featuring goals scored, conceded, passes made, etc, but now highlight dynamic statistics throughout the game, such as expected goals, player fitness, possession and many more. It can support the oddsmakers in creating more precise probabilities, helping to improve accuracy, but it will never eliminate unpredictability.

In Conclusion 

Odds are created as a result of an incredibly detailed scientific and mathematical process, which involves a vast amount of statistics and data to support them. The amount of effort and time that goes into creating them is often overlooked, but despite this, they can never be 100% accurate. Betting on football may be unpredictable, but everything that goes into it is based on probabilities, not predictions.