For much of the post-pandemic period, Belgium’s regulated gambling industry had been on a steady climb. In fact, data from iGaming Business shows that the industry’s gross gaming revenue grew by 16.7% in 2023. Online platforms were expanding, and land-based casinos were adapting. Across all verticals, the market sensed that the recovery phase had matured into something more stable, as both regulators and operators learned to navigate the “new normal” of digital-first gambling habits.
But 2024 changed that narrative in a way few in the industry fully expected. According to newly released figures from the Belgian regulator, the country’s regulated gambling market recorded its first annual decline since the pandemic recovery began, with total GGR slipping by 4.86% year-over-year, from €1.69 billion in 2023 to €1.61 billion in 2024. Well, that might look like a modest correction, but it has raised questions about whether a tightly controlled framework has begun affecting player behavior more than anticipated.
And the shift is also influencing how players interact with promotions and entry points into gaming platforms. Take an offer like no deposit bonus casino in Belgium, for instance. Features like this, which were once a common attraction used to draw in casual users, are now operating under stricter visibility rules and tighter compliance standards.
A market shifted by regulation, not just demand
It’s obvious that the decline couldn’t have been caused by players suddenly losing interest in the game. It must have been a mix of several factors working together, with regulation sitting right at the center of the conversation. And one of the changes that significantly impacted the market was the introduction of restrictions on bonuses alongside other stricter advertising rules.
Operators were required to separate their products by licence type, meaning a single platform could no longer host multiple gambling categories. As such, some operators were forced to shift their offerings between licence categories, which, in turn, affected revenue distribution across segments. When it comes to market visibility, bans on various promotions have negatively affected the exposure of operators.
And this trend is not just limited to Belgium alone; other European nations have also been tightening their regulatory stance, albeit at different speeds. Across the continent, regulators are increasingly trying to balance market growth with stronger consumer protection, especially when it comes to promotional incentives. That’s why even discussions around no deposit bonus casinos in Europe now tend to sit within a much more cautious context rather than the heavily promotional environment they once came from.
Online vs land-based: Two different stories of decline
Even though the decline affected the entire industry, not all the sectors felt the same heat. In the online space, a year-over-year decrease of 2.7% was realized. However, the segment still maintained its throne, contributing €919.10 million, or 57.1% of total GGR.
The land-based sector, on the other hand, took a harder hit. Revenue dropped by 7.59% to €690.41 million, reflecting weaker performance in physical locations and cafe-based gaming. Walking through Belgium’s retail betting spaces, the change becomes even more visible. Fewer betting shops are operating, and those that remain often report reduced foot traffic. According to industry estimates, the shops reduced from 535 to 408 within just two years. And this is after revenues from these locations dropped by almost 18%.
Yet, not all land-based segments struggled equally. Casino gaming actually showed resilience, with revenue rising by over 7%. Turning over to the sports betting segment, the total GGR fell by 6.59% to €364.3 million. Like other sectors, the decline was more pronounced in offline channels, while online wagering showed a smaller reduction of just 2.11%. It’s still a surprise that even major sporting events during that year could not reverse this trend.
Concerns over player migration and market uncertainty
As already highlighted, Belgium’s gambling market was already on a rising trajectory before this sudden dip. Between 2020 and 2023, online gambling alone saw a 60% increase in revenue. But then came the regulations, which are believed to have affected player behaviour. When a regulated market becomes more restrictive in how it engages users, there’s always the lingering risk that some players may start exploring alternatives outside the licensed ecosystem.
It’s a big part of why many male gamblers aged 18 to 21 are turning to unregulated sites that do not enforce age restrictions similar to those in Belgium. You may actually be surprised to learn that, according to NEXT.io, this figure is almost two-thirds (65%) of the gamblers, begging the question of whether the current policies are effective.
But again, regulators are saying that the available data for 2024 still remains incomplete because of reporting delays and financial challenges. And now that two years is a lot of time for this industry to make a significant turn, you may have to wait a little longer before drawing any firm conclusions about where things are truly headed.
For now, it’s clear that Belgium is no longer in that effortless growth phase it enjoyed immediately after the pandemic. The market is slowing, yes, but it’s also adjusting to a new reality where tighter rules and shifting player habits are all part of the equation. Operators will now have to rethink strategies beyond aggressive acquisition and focus more on retention. On the regulators’ side, there’s an ongoing challenge of ensuring protection measures don’t unintentionally push activity beyond the regulated space.
